This marks a resumption of monthly speaker presentations on the third Wednesday of each month.
Presentation Title: Reliability Engineering deep-dive.
The objective of a Credible Reliability Test is credibility, by using field reliability of comparable parts, proportional hazards modeling, new product design, and Bayes statistics. Credibility in the insurance industry “is an actuarial term describing the degree of accuracy in forecasting future events based on statistical reporting of past events.”
Reliability is not MTBF! Bayes’ RnnCmm tests randomize a parameter: Weibull characteristic life, MTBF or Gamma constant failure rate, or binomial failure probability [NIST]. Credible Reliability Test Planning uses a scaled “Credible Reliability Prediction”, not a single parameter, as Bayes’ prior.
Alternative reliability priors are linear failure rate function a(t) = a+b*t (two parameters), Dirichlet prior for discrete probability density function, or scaled nonparametric credible failure rate function prediction; e.g. multiplied by MTBF(old)/MTBF(new) aka “proportional hazards model”.
Why not plan credible reliability tests to maximize bang-per-reliability-related buck subject to budget constraint? Planning and cost allocation includes: RnnCmm, costs, proposed sample sizes and allowable failures. WeitestD.xlsm workbook assumes a Weibull TTF distribution. Input costs of units, test time, consumer and producer risk. Workbook computes costs for test units, times, and allowable failures for optimization. Feel free to use your own credible posterior distribution.
Larry George, PhD, has 12 years of teaching and training experience including Texas A&M and Applied Materials. He worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for 11 years. He has more than 30 years of field reliability experience including jobs, contracts, consulting, and free service. his web site is https://sites.google.com/site/fieldreliability/
In 1998 he received the Allen Chop Reliability Award from the American Society for Quality’s Reliability Division. In 2000 the ASQ elected him as Fellow, for contributions to and publications in Reliability Review. He has BS in engineering, an MBA from UCLA and a PhD in IE&OR with a minor in Statistics from UC Berkeley. He is a member, Certified Reliability Engineer, and fellow of the ASQ and member of the American Statistical Association Statistics Without Borders, and International Double Reed Society.
Nov 17 (630pm – 830pm), Zoom Meeting
Other activities will start soon!!!
Message From the Acting Section Chair
Dear ASQ Silicon Valley Quality Professionals,
Welcome back to ASQ Silicon Valley Chapter. Wishing everyone a great recovery from the pandemic. The Chapter activities were disrupted last year for protecting members’ health. We have rebooted the chapter and have planned exciting activities starting this month. Please join the monthly ‘ZOOM’ meeting starting this month.
ASQ Silicon Valley (SV) Chapter provides a powerful platform to network with about 1000 ASQ members 1500+ quality professionals in Bay Area. The SV Section operates in the emerging technologies space, where new companies are formed, and new skills for quality professionals are desired. Our chapter strives for professional development through shared knowledge, lessons learned, and best practices in the field of Quality.
We look forward to seeing you at upcoming events.
Sunil Roy, Ph.D.
ASQ-SV Acting Chair